Just wanted to make a quick post here on a couple of things that I missed from my last entry.
Bet with your pockets, not with your heart - If you're a [insert favorite team here] fan and you think your team is going to win every game, I wish you luck. However, odds are your team is not going to go undefeated, and I would bet everything on the fact that they will not cover every spread. Personally, I stay away from betting my team at all - this is just my own preference, but it is the smart thing to do. First of all, if you bet them as an underdog and they lose the game but cover the spread, where is the satisfaction? On the other side, if you bet on your team and they win but don't cover the spread, you still aren't happy. Obviously there will be games where everything works out for you, but the percentage probably isn't very high.
I'm a little distracted right now because I am watching the USC-Oregon State game. I knew Oregon State had a good defense but I didn't see this coming.... Anyway, another thing about college football (and really any sport) is that the best time to bet is the beginning of the season. The most money most people will make is the first 2 or 3 weeks of the season, and the bowl season. Handicappers do not really know how good the top teams actually are at the beginning of the season, and even when a top 10 team is a 30 point favorite, it is not enough. Once it hits week 3, you start to see the spreads alot closer to what they actually should be, and this is when it gets much harder to bet. I love betting the bowl games, but tend to stay away from the BCS games. This is all things that i will go into more as the year progresses.
My picks for this weekend:
Michigan State (-8.5) @ Indiana - Coming off of a 42-20 loss at home against Ball State, I do not have alot of confidence in Indiana. While their defense has only allowed 19.3 points per game, it is largely because of their first 2 home games against Western Kentucky and Murray State. Michigan State has a better defense, and I expect RB Javon Ringer to put up some very nice numbers.
Wisconsin (-6.5) @ Michigan - Alright, I am going against some of my own advice with this one, but Wisconsin is a much better team than Michigan. While this game is in the Big House, talent should overrule for the Badgers. The spread is low because of the homefield advantage, but Wisconsin shouldn't have a problem winning by a Touchdown with their defense and the Wolverine's dismal offense.
TCU (+19) @ Oklahoma - I do not love this game for a few reasons. Oklahoma has a far superior team. While the Horned Frogs have the best Defense in the nation (yards allowed), they have not yet played a decent team. Oklahoma will bring them down to Earth, but I don't think it will be a blowout. TCU has no shot of winning this game, but I do believe that are good enough on both sides of the ball to cover.
I may post a couple more tomorrow, but this is it for now....Oregon State 21-0 at the Half!!!!????
Keywords: betting, college football, gambling, picks, USC
