The Betting Man's Guide to College Football

Today marks the beginning of an era.  If you are reading this blog, I already know that you are a college football fan.  What this website exists for, is to inform and entertain.  Although sports betting will be one of my main topics, I will also discuss games from the prospective of a fan.  Let me start by giving you a brief backgroung on myself.  I am originally from New York, currently living in Tampa, Florida.  I am a diehard Yankees, Jets, and Knicks (yes, the New York Knicks) fan, and my college teams are Penn State and UNC.  I have enjoyed sports as long as I can remember, and started betting probably about four years ago.

Let me preface the rest of this by saying that I do not think gambling is the smartest thing to do, and it is certainly risky.  Even though I have had bets that seemed like locks from the start, there is no such thing as a certain bet.  I do not pretend to be a professional, and there might be a number of people out there - possibly even on this site - that are just as successful as I am.  This said, I have done very well for myself the last few years, mostly focusing on college football.  I would like to start by explaining my reasons for sticking with college sports, and why I feel NCAA football is the best way to win money. 

College sports are my favorite to watch because of the amount of heart that the kids play with.  While there are a good number of these athletes that go on to the next level, the majority of them are playing their final four years at an elite level.  They leave everything out on the field/court, and show emotions beyond that of most professional athletes.  These are the reasons that I enjoy watching, but my reasons for betting college football are intelligent and well thought out.  The following are facts:

         1.  Scores are much higher (on average) in college than NFL games - Spreads are higher due to this fact and...

         2.  The top team in the NCAA is immensely more talented than the worst team; This is not the case in the NFL (The 2007-2008 Patriots were the most dominant NFL team I have seen since in my lifetime, and they lost in the Super Bowl to the New York Giants).

         3.  On a normal week there are only 14 NFL games played, and over 50 College games (greater selection).

         4.  Home field, while important in the NFL, is HUGE in the NCAA (especically for in-conference games). 

         5.  Running up the score is common because it goes into the BCS calculations (i.e. If Team A is ranked #3 and only wins by 3 points while Team B is ranked #4 and beats a quality team by 30, they will likely switch spots).

These are just a few things that I take into consideration when I bet on college football.  People tend to shy away from games when they see a huge spread, and it is common to have several spreads upward of 28 (4 Touchdowns) on your weekly NCAA schedule.  Forget the Michigan - Appalachian State game last year because that type of game is probably a once in a lifetime event.  If any Division 1-A teams loses to a FCS team it is embarassing, but this loss was so extreme because it was Michigan (albeit, a bad Wolverines team) in the Big House.  But my point is, a great team losing to a horrible team almost NEVER happens in College Football.  The important thing to remember has already been stated in #2 above - The reason for these gigantic spreads is that the top 10 or even the top 25 teams are way better than the worst 25 teams in college football.  For this reason, amongst others, my favorite games to bet are these very ones that I am speaking of.

While you and I may be dying to watch the big SEC matchup between Georgia and Alabama this week, I sure as hell do not want to bet on it.  Some people may love these games because they are so exciting and it should be a great battle, but this is the very reason that I stay away from them.  A close in-conference game between SEC opponents both ranked in the top 25 may be something to record on your DVR, but probably will not win you money the majority of the time.  I would rather take a game like last week's matchup of Penn State and Temple, and lay the 30 points (Penn State was up 31-0 at halftime and won by a final of 45-3 ). 

Some people like to look at trends and rely on numbers, but my best technique over the last 4 years has been simply watching a ton of games.  While this may be time consuming and you may have plans for your Saturday afternoons, it is truly the only way to break down a team's play and understand their makeup.  Trends are bullshit and only exist in order to confuse the bettors.  While all of the numbers and statements may be true, they only are put out there to make you think a certain way or lean in a particular direction (Florida A&M might be undefeated during night games when it is over 100 degrees and raining, but what is the sample size and who have they played?).  If you watched the first week's game featuring Virginia Tech and East Carolina, you would not have been surprised when ECU beat West Virginia the next week or that the Hokies could not score more than 24 against FCS school, Furman College, the following week.

This is alot of information to include in my first post, and I hope that it proves to you my knowledge of the sport and of sports betting.  I will leave you with a couple more things that I tend to shy away from...

DON'T bet parlays - OK, you can here and there if you really love a couple of games, but I would strongly suggest not doing any more than 3 teams if you do bet a parlay.  You remember those slips that the local guys used to hand out and you would circle 6 games (or however many you wanted) and throw down $10?  Did you ever hear of anybody hitting for that $2500?  Didn't think so...      

Stick to what you know or what you are good at - I love watching my Jets play on Sundays, but I can not hit NFL games to save my life.  It took me a couple of years to figure it out, but I finally stopped betting the Pros and now bet exclusively on College (same with the NBA/College).

Don't chase losses, and don't bet for entertainment - That is, if you want to make money.  I know it is easier said than done, but when you lose that $100 bet and then double up on the next game it never seems to work out.  Sometimes you just have to accept a losing week and wait until the next Saturday to try again.  The second part is also something I have done in the past, but only do it if you can truly afford it.  What I mean by "betting for entertainment" is: USC and Orgeon State are playing on Thursday night, the game is on ESPN and you are going out with your buddies to watch it at the local watering hole, you aren't quite sure whether you think the Trojans are going to cover the 28 point spread but you want to bet it just to make the game more interesting.  Only bet on the games that you really love, whether it be ten games a weekend or only one or two.

My next blog will come tomorrow or Friday and will be much more brief.  I hope that you come back here because I plan on making everyone who visits this site alot of money.  Please leave comments on anything that you would like to see, or any questions you might have. 

My 1st Pick: Thursday 9/24 8:00 PM - SMU +18.5 @ Tulane (I don't love this pick, but I think that June Jones's offense should stay in this long enough to cover the spread).