Big Ten Week 5 Blog, Sep. 27 Picks

FINALLY, college football begins today.  Well, specifically it began Thursday night with Oregon State’s shocking victory over USC.  While it might be impossible for today to match the drama of Thursday night, it is finally time when the FCS/Div I-AA/cupcakes go awayLast week was another successful one in general for the Big Ten.  Nothing too spectacular, but they avoided the disasters that have seemed to strike the Big East, Pac 10, and ACC on different occasions this year.  Purdue narrowly survived against Central Michigan, Michigan State dominated in the trenches against the Fighting Irish, and Minnesota surprisingly annihilated a struggling FAU team.  Despite two losses, neither were unexpected – Iowa lost to Pitt by a single point in Pittsburgh, while Ball State rallied around fallen teammate Dante Love and dominated an Indiana team that looks like the conference’s weakest link at this point.  Here are the Big Ten Big 11 Rankings, then some picks:

1.    Wisconsin
2.    Penn State
3.    Ohio State
4.    Illinois
5.    Michigan State
6.    Purdue
7.    Michigan
8.    Minnesota
9.    Iowa
10. Northwestern
11. Indiana

Penn State-Illinois – Nobody seems to be giving the Illini a chance, which does not make sense to me.  Certainly, Penn State has looked incredibly impressive in its wins against struggling opponents, and Illinois has not at all.  The atmosphere will be electric for the first big game of the season at Happy Valley, a primetime whiteout.  However, lest not forget that the last true road game the Illini have played was its upset victory over #1 Ohio State last year.  Those positive immediate memories of its last road test will allow to Ron Zook’s group to withstand adversity and stay focused and confident in the game.  I think Penn State wins in a shootout, but that both teams look impressive.  Look for Penn State to enter the top 6 this week, and for Illinois to play well enough to remain ranked with a 2-2 record.

Michigan-Wisconsin – With a week off for both head coaches, we’ll see what Rich Rodriguez can come up with for his Big Ten debut, against arguably the conference’s best defense.  The Badgers should have a distinct advantage in players and experience, but even with P.J. Hill racking up yards and controlling the game, Wisconsin could only manage 13 points at Fresno.  If Sam McGuffie or Greg Mathews can bust a big play or two for Blue, don’t be shocked if they can pull off the first upset of the conference season.

Ohio St.-Minnesota - The Terrelle Pryor era has officially arrived to Columbus, earlier than expected.  More important, Chris Wells will allegedly be back for the Buckeyes, who have proven to less RB depth behind him than was expected.  This game should be something to watch just to see how the offense responds with both Pryor and Wells on the field, and just how fancy the uberconservative Tressel will be willing to get.  Expect the freshman-led offense to continue to improve against Ted Roof’s improved Gopher defense.  Next Saturday night in Madison… not so much.

Saturday’s Big Ten Picks
Minnesota at Ohio State (OSU -20, Big Ten Network 12:00 ET)
Ohio St. 27, Minnesota 14

Michigan State at Indiana (MSU -8, ESPN 12:00 ET)
Michigan State 31, Indiana 17

Northwestern at Iowa (Iowa -8.5, ESPNClassic 12:00 ET)
Iowa 20, Northwestern 17

Purdue at Notre Dame (ND -1, NBC 3:30 ET)
Purdue 23, Notre Dame 18

Wisconsin at Michigan (Wis -6.5, ABC 3:30 ET)
Wisconsin 17, Michigan 16

Illinois at Penn State (PSU -16, ABC 8:00 ET)
Penn State 38, Illinois 31

Last Week: 7-1; ATS: 4-4